We’re just hours away from the most anticipated meeting of 2019. President Trump and Chinese President Jinping will meet to discuss the trade war that’s rattled the world.
According to many firms on Wall Street, while a cease-fire is likely, the summit may not produce much. And many have their fingers crossed that Trump will delay imposing tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese imports.
Here’s what some of the top Wall Street banks are saying about the meeting:
Barclays Sees a “Cease Fire”
Analysts at Barclays say that, “With both sides expressing a desire to resume talks, we see increasing chances of some sort of ‘ceasefire,’ in which the two sides will agree to halt further escalation of tariffs and/or non-tariff barriers while high-level negotiations take place,” as quoted by CNBC.
Bank of America Doesn’t See Urgency on the Part of the U.S.
However, according to analysts, “Consensus expects can-kicking, but no rolling back of tariffs that are already in place. With above-trend economic growth and the S&P 500 at an all-time high, there is no sense of urgency on the part of the US to reach an agreement. Under a “real deal”, the S&P 500 could rally as high as 3100. But if additional tariffs are implemented, the S&P 500 could sustain a 5%+ move lower.”
Goldman Sachs Believes the U.S. will Temporarily Delay Tariffs
“Our political economists expect that the US and China will commit to resume negotiations and that the US will temporarily delay any additional tariff increases on Chinese imports. Despite a pause in tariff increases in the near term, they expect that there could still be additional tariffs later this year. Our economists’ base case remains a 10% tariff rate on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports, lower than the 25% rate that has been proposed by the USTR,” notes Goldman Sachs, as quoted by CNBC.