Company Overview

Nvidia reports its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on Tuesday, November 19th after market close, and anticipation is reaching fever pitch for what may be the most important earnings report of the entire season. As the world’s most valuable company and the dominant supplier of AI chips, Nvidia’s results serve as a bellwether for the entire AI infrastructure buildout and the broader technology sector.

Just this past Sunday, Citi analyst Atif Malik raised his price target to $220 from $210, maintaining a Buy rating and projecting Q3 sales of $56.8 billion—well above Wall Street’s $54.6 billion consensus. The upgrade came after Nvidia announced it has already shipped six million Blackwell chip units, demonstrating the rapid production ramp of its next-generation AI processors. Malik also boosted his 2028 data center semiconductor total addressable market forecast to $654 billion, up 16% from his prior $563 billion estimate, citing explosive AI infrastructure spending.

Key Technical and Fundamental Drivers

Earnings Tuesday → Beat-and-Raise Expected Nvidia reports Q3 results on November 19th after close, with Citi modeling $56.8B in sales (vs. consensus $54.6B) and expecting Q4 guidance of $62B (vs. Street’s $61B).

Blackwell Momentum → 6 Million Units Shipped Management’s announcement of already shipping six million Blackwell units demonstrates production is ramping faster than expected, with demand projected to exceed supply for several quarters.

Analyst Confidence → Fresh Price Target Hike Citi raised its price target to $220 this week (17% upside), while the consensus among 64 analysts shows 59 Buy ratings with an average target of $230.78 (19%+ upside).

Expanding TAM → $654B Market by 2028 Citi increased its 2028 data center semiconductor TAM forecast by 16% to $654 billion, driven by sovereign AI demand and hyperscaler buildouts requiring massive compute infrastructure.

Track Record → 19 of 21 Quarters Beat Nvidia has exceeded analyst earnings estimates in 19 of the past 21 quarters, maintaining an exceptional history of delivering upside surprises with its earnings ESP at +2.08%.

Market Takeaway

Nvidia’s earnings on Tuesday represent not just a single company’s quarterly report, but a critical temperature check on the entire AI infrastructure revolution. The stock has recovered dramatically from its April lows near $86, recently hitting all-time highs near $212 after navigating China export restrictions and tariff headwinds. With a $4+ trillion market capitalization, Nvidia’s results and guidance will likely set the tone for the entire technology sector heading into year-end.

The Blackwell chip cycle appears to be unfolding even better than optimists predicted. Six million units shipped ahead of schedule, combined with management’s guidance that demand will exceed supply for multiple quarters, suggests the product transition is progressing smoothly. This stands in stark contrast to previous generation transitions that sometimes encountered production bottlenecks. The key question for Tuesday’s report is whether Nvidia can demonstrate that gross margins—which have moderated to the low 70% range—can stabilize or improve as higher-margin Blackwell sales ramp.

Beyond the numbers, investors will scrutinize CEO Jensen Huang’s commentary on several critical topics: the pace of Blackwell deployments through early 2026, any potential resumption of H20 chip sales to China following recent trade negotiations, and color on emerging sovereign AI demand that’s adding billions in incremental revenue. With the stock trading at 28x forward earnings—lower than AI peers like Broadcom (38x) and AMD (37x)—Nvidia’s valuation appears relatively attractive despite its massive size. Tuesday’s report will determine whether the AI infrastructure buildout narrative remains intact or if we’re finally seeing signs of the spending moderation that bears have been predicting.