Company Overview
Novo Nordisk became one of the most valuable companies in Europe in 2023 on the success of Wegovy and Ozempic, then spent the next two years losing ground to Eli Lilly, cutting guidance, and changing CEOs. The shares have fallen more than 70% from their peak. Yesterday morning, third-quarter results gave investors the clearest evidence in some time that the company may be stabilizing.
Adjusted sales rose 4% at constant exchange rates to DKK 79.2 billion, well above the roughly DKK 73.2 billion analysts expected. Adjusted operating profit rose 27% at constant exchange rates to DKK 31.72 billion, above the DKK 28.39 billion forecast. The main driver was the Wegovy pill, which generated DKK 5.39 billion (about $810 million) in sales, up 53% from the second quarter and above the DKK 4.62 billion company-compiled consensus. Novo then raised its 2026 outlook for the third time this year, to adjusted sales and operating profit growth of between -2% and +2% at constant exchange rates, up from a decline of as much as 6%.
The stock reaction was strong but uneven. Shares rose as much as 6.6% in early European trading, were up about 1.9% a few hours later in Reuters’s midmorning update, and were described as up 4.5% to more than 5% in other reports. The ADR was trading around $39 going into the print, well below its 200-day average. The question for the next few weeks is whether the pill’s momentum can carry the story through 2027.
Key Technical and Fundamental Drivers
Beat on Sales and Profit → Adjusted Operating Profit DKK 31.7 Billion vs. 28.4 Billion Expected
Adjusted sales of DKK 79.2 billion beat the DKK 73.2 billion expected, and adjusted operating profit of DKK 31.72 billion beat the DKK 28.39 billion expected. Management attributed the improvement to continued GLP-1 volume growth in both the US and international markets, primarily in obesity. A beat of that size on both sales and profit is unusual for Novo this year and is what drove the guidance raise.
Wegovy Pill → DKK 5.39 Billion, Up 53% from Last Quarter
Wegovy pill sales were DKK 5.39 billion, with DKK 4.18 billion in the US and DKK 1.22 billion from international markets that have only just launched. US prescriptions were about 3.6 million in the quarter and have passed 8 million since launch in January. Novo says it plans additional launches in the fourth quarter and expects the pill to be available in more than 20 markets in 2027. The pill is still only about 6% of expected sales, but analysts see it as the company’s main route back to growth.
Guidance Raised a Third Time → Outlook Now -2% to +2%
The full-year range for adjusted sales and operating profit growth moved from a decline of up to 6% to between -2% and +2% at constant exchange rates. Novo said the improvement reflects higher expectations for GLP-1 sales. The outlook assumes growth internationally and a decline in the United States. Three raises in one year show that results have been running ahead of the company’s own cautious forecasts.
Injectables Still Shrinking → The Pill Is Offsetting a Decline Elsewhere
Injectable Wegovy sales fell 2% to DKK 20.4 billion and Ozempic fell 5% to DKK 29.7 billion, both losing share to Lilly. In the US, injectable Wegovy fell 13% at constant exchange rates, but combined US Wegovy sales rose 21% once the pill is included. That mix shift is the heart of the story: the pill is not only adding new sales but replacing some injectable demand, and the net effect is positive for now.
A Company That May Have Stabilized → New CEO, Lower Expectations
CEO Mike Doustdar, who took over after a leadership change, said “we’ve been able to hold the baton” since Lilly launched its rival pill. Markus Manns of Union Investment, a Novo shareholder, said the results show the new CEO has stabilized the company, while cautioning that the competitive environment in obesity is likely to become increasingly challenging. After a more than 70% decline from the peak, expectations are low enough that a beat and a guidance raise can move the stock meaningfully.
Market Takeaway
Novo’s quarter is a recovery story with real evidence behind it. A new product beat forecasts by a wide margin, profit came in well ahead of expectations, and management lifted guidance for the third time. For a stock that has lost most of its value in two years, that is the kind of result that can change sentiment, particularly while the ADR sits well below its longer-term averages.
The risks are just as concrete. Lilly raised its own outlook last week, and its rival Foundayo pill is winning a growing share of new prescriptions, so Novo’s lead in oral obesity is not secure. The company’s outlook assumes a decline in US sales, and Doustdar declined to give 2027 guidance before February, pointing to semaglutide losing exclusivity in some international markets, continued pressure in China, and a less favorable gross-to-net effect than in 2026. Reported results also carried charges of DKK 4.6 billion tied to the failed ziltivekimab trial and DKK 4.1 billion for right-sizing its manufacturing network, so adjusted profit flatters the picture. US pricing is a further overhang, with injectable price erosion and the most-favored-nation pricing agreement already affecting results, and the stock’s intraday fade from +6.6% to roughly +2% in Reuters’s update shows investors are not yet fully convinced. For readers watching Thursday’s session, Novo offers a clear view of whether a depressed leader in obesity can turn one strong quarter into a trend, with the next proof points being fourth-quarter pill launches and the 2027 guidance in February.