Company Overview Eli Lilly raised its fiscal 2025 sales guidance to $60 billion to $62 billion, up from a previous outlook of $58 billion to $61 billion, and expects adjusted fiscal 2025 earnings between $21.75 and $23 per share, up from previous guidance of $20.78 to $22.28 per share. The company’s diabetes treatment Mounjaro topped Q2 expectations, raking in almost $5.2 billion in revenue, up 68% from the same period a year ago, while weight loss drug Zepbound beat estimates with $3.38 billion in sales, up a whopping 172% from the year-earlier period.
CEO David Ricks told CNBC that “Tirzepatide, which is Mounjaro and Zepbound, will likely become the bestselling drug in the industry in its third year in the market, and we’ve got a lot more coming in the pipeline”. Lilly commands approximately 57% of U.S. GLP-1 obesity and diabetes prescriptions versus roughly 43% for rival Novo Nordisk, with its growth rate of over 40% far exceeding peers. Through the first six months of the year, Mounjaro and Zepbound generated a combined $14.7 billion in revenue for Eli Lilly, accounting for more than half of its total revenue.
Key Technical and Fundamental Drivers
Market Dominance → 57% U.S. Prescription Share Lilly commands 57% of U.S. GLP-1 obesity/diabetes prescriptions compared to 43% for Novo Nordisk, with recent Jefferies data showing Zepbound’s market share increased 1.1% to 43.4% in late September while Wegovy declined 1.2% to 55.7%.
Explosive Q2 Growth → Combined $8.57B Sales Lilly’s two tirzepatide drugs brought in a combined $8.57 billion in Q2, compared to $4.33 billion in Q2 2024, helping drive the company’s total Q2 revenue to $15.56 billion, up 38% from the same period last year.
Supply Shortage Resolved → FDA Confirmation The US Food and Drug Administration confirmed that Eli Lilly has increased production of Zepbound and Mounjaro, with both drugs removed from the agency’s drug shortage list after the company notified the FDA in August that the drugs were no longer in shortage.
Oral Pill Pipeline → Game-Changing Orforglipron Lilly’s experimental obesity pill orforglipron should be able to scale up production without the same supply constraints faced with injectables, as it requires neither specialized injection pens nor cold storage and shipping, eliminating competition from drug compounders.
Analyst Consensus → $939 Target Price About 32 analysts rate Lilly a “Buy” with an average 12-month target of approximately $939, while quant models range from roughly $768 by end-2025 to $1,030 by end-2026.
Market Takeaway Lilly’s financial horsepower is impressive – in 2024, earnings doubled to $10.6 billion with profit margin climbing to 23.5%, giving the company options to fund new drug development and weather short-term headwinds better than smaller competitors. Mounjaro’s 68% growth far surpassed Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic which only grew 15% in Q2, while GlobalData forecasts a higher sales ceiling for tirzepatide by 2031 due to the drug’s improved efficacy over semaglutide.
In late September the European Commission approved Lilly’s Alzheimer’s antibody Kisunla, and in October the company signed a landmark deal with India’s Cipla to supply its weekly obesity injection for local sale under the brand name “Yurpeak”. Lilly has invested over $1 billion in India through local manufacturing partnerships and announced a $5 billion state-of-the-art factory in Virginia as part of a $27 billion U.S. expansion plan to ensure domestic supply.
Eli Lilly is the most valuable healthcare stock in the world with a market capitalization of more than $760 billion, and analysts believe it should be on track to be the first healthcare company to hit a $1 trillion valuation within the next few years. While the obesity market is large, treating heart disease is even bigger – drugs that lower cardiovascular risks by 20-30% could reach millions who might not seek an “obesity drug” but would take one for heart health. With supply constraints now resolved, market share gains accelerating, an oral pill pipeline approaching approval, and expansion into cardiovascular indications on the horizon, Eli Lilly represents a dominant player in what could become the largest pharmaceutical market in history.