Company Overview
MPLX LP has emerged as one of Wall Street’s favorite income plays heading into 2026, combining an mouth-watering 8.03% distribution yield with double-digit growth and the defensive characteristics of fee-based midstream infrastructure. The Findlay, Ohio-based master limited partnership (MLP) announced its Q3 2025 distribution of $1.0765 per unit in late October—marking 12.5% year-over-year growth and targeting similar growth through 2027. RBC Capital analyst Elvira Scotto just reiterated her “Buy” rating in late November and raised the price target to $60 from $58, calling MPLX “one of the most compelling income plays among large-cap MLPs.”
What makes MPLX particularly attractive right now is the convergence of multiple catalysts. The company operates as the midstream arm of Marathon Petroleum, owning 29,104 kilometers of crude oil pipelines (transporting roughly 30% of North American crude), 112,879 kilometers of natural gas pipelines (handling 20% of U.S. gas demand), plus the largest natural gas utility operation in North America serving 7 million customers. In July 2025, MPLX struck a $2.38 billion deal to acquire Northwind Midstream, dramatically expanding its sour gas gathering and processing footprint in the Permian Basin’s Delaware sub-basin—a move expected to be immediately accretive to distributable cash flow. The company then executed a strategic portfolio rotation in August, selling approximately $1 billion of Rocky Mountain assets to Harvest Midstream to fund Permian expansion. With $2 billion in 2025 capex driving mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, rock-solid fee-based contracts providing stable cash flows, and a pristine balance sheet with $521 million in cash and reasonable leverage, MPLX offers what Scotto describes as “peer-leading free cash flow growth” in a sector that’s suddenly back in vogue as investors hunt for yield in an uncertain rate environment.
Key Technical and Fundamental Drivers
RBC Upgrade to $60 → Late November 2025 RBC Capital’s Elvira Scotto, a top-rated analyst, reiterated “Buy” and raised the price target to $60 from $58 on November 21st, citing MPLX as “one of the most compelling income plays among large-cap MLPs with an attractive current yield of ~8%.”
8.03% Yield with 12.5% Growth → Q3 Distribution Announcement MPLX announced Q3 distribution of $1.0765 per unit (annualized $4.31), yielding 8.03%, with management targeting 12.5% annual distribution growth through 2027—rare combination of high current yield and double-digit growth.
$2.38B Northwind Acquisition → July 2025 Permian Expansion The Northwind Midstream deal closed in Q3, adding critical sour gas gathering and processing capacity in the Permian’s Delaware Basin, immediately accretive to distributable cash flow and positioning MPLX for volume growth as Permian production expands.
23% YTD Outperformance → Leading the Sector MPLX units are up approximately 23% year-to-date versus the Alerian MLP Index (~12%) and Alerian Midstream Index (~5%), demonstrating superior execution and market recognition of the quality franchise.
$2B Capex Driving Growth → Multiple Projects Scaling Key projects including the Eiger Express pipeline (linking Permian gas to Gulf Coast export facilities) and Gulf Coast fractionation expansions are scaling up, with management projecting mid-single-digit EBITDA growth beyond 2026.
Market Takeaway
MPLX LP represents the forgotten opportunity in energy infrastructure—a sector that quietly delivered exceptional returns in 2025 while tech stocks grabbed headlines. The master limited partnership structure offers tax advantages (though investors receive K-1 forms rather than 1099s), and MPLX’s position as Marathon Petroleum’s midstream arm provides both stability through the parent company relationship and growth through dropdown opportunities. The 8.03% distribution yield is nearly 4x the S&P 500’s dividend yield, and unlike high-yield stocks in sectors facing secular headwinds, MPLX’s cash flows are underpinned by long-term, fee-based contracts tied to volumes rather than commodity prices.
The recent string of strategic moves demonstrates management’s focus on capital allocation excellence. The $2.38 billion Northwind acquisition targets the Permian Basin—America’s most prolific oil field—specifically sour gas processing where MPLX gains exposure to increasing associated gas production as Permian oil output continues growing. Simultaneously selling $1 billion of non-core Rocky Mountain assets shows discipline in rotating capital toward higher-return opportunities. The result: MPLX is positioning as the critical infrastructure provider for Permian producers who need gas takeaway capacity and NGL processing to support continued oil production growth.
RBC’s Scotto isn’t alone in her bullish stance—Morgan Stanley raised its target to $62 in November, while Barclays lifted to $55. The consensus sits around $59, implying roughly 10% price appreciation from current levels around $54, plus the 8% yield delivers total return potential exceeding 18% over the next 12 months. Simply Wall St’s discounted cash flow analysis suggests MPLX trades at 54.7% below fair value, though investors should note that some analysts caution the stock looks extended after its 23% YTD run, with JPMorgan downgrading to “Neutral” on December 1st (while keeping a $57 target) purely on valuation grounds rather than fundamental concerns.
The investment case boils down to this: MPLX offers a rare combination of 8% current income, 12.5% distribution growth, exposure to structurally growing Permian Basin volumes, defensive fee-based business model, and reasonable valuation at current levels. The risks are standard for MLPs—K-1 tax complexity, sensitivity to energy industry health, concentration risk with Marathon Petroleum as both parent and largest customer, and the reality that distribution growth depends on successful execution of the $2 billion capex program. But for income investors exhausted by 3-4% Treasury yields and seeking equity upside alongside cash flow, MPLX delivers what few stocks can: meaningful current income that’s actually growing at double digits. As we head into 2026 with continued uncertainty around Fed policy and economic growth, owning a toll-road on America’s energy infrastructure with an 8% yield starts looking awfully attractive.