Company Overview Ross Stores operates as one of America’s premier off-price retailers through its 1,800+ Ross Dress for Less and 364 dd’s DISCOUNTS stores, offering brand-name merchandise at 20-60% below department store prices. The company delivered impressive Q3 fiscal 2025 results on November 20, 2025, reporting revenue of $5.6 billion (up 10% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.58 that crushed analyst estimates of $1.41, with comparable store sales surging 7% year-over-year—a significant acceleration from prior quarters.
What makes Ross Stores particularly compelling right now is the company’s positioning to capitalize on the ongoing “trade-down” trend as consumers across income levels increasingly seek value in an environment of persistent inflation. Following the strong Q3 beat, management raised Q4 guidance to 3-4% comp sales growth and increased full-year EPS guidance to $6.38-$6.46, demonstrating confidence heading into the critical holiday season. Multiple analysts responded with target increases, including Barclays boosting to $183 from $164, while the stock hit new 52-week highs on the earnings news.
Key Technical and Fundamental Drivers
Strong Q3 Beat → 7% Comp Sales, Guidance Raised Ross delivered Q3 results on November 20th showing revenue of $5.6 billion, up 10% year-over-year, with comparable store sales surging 7%—well above expectations—while EPS of $1.58 crushed estimates of $1.41, prompting an 8% stock surge to new 52-week highs.
Holiday Momentum → Q4 Guidance Increased Management raised Q4 comparable sales forecast to 3-4% growth for the 13 weeks ending January 31, 2026, up from prior guidance, while increasing full-year fiscal 2025 EPS guidance to $6.38-$6.46 despite approximately $0.16 per share impact from tariff-related costs.
Analyst Upgrades → Price Targets to $183 Following the Q3 beat, Barclays raised its price target to $183 from $164, Telsey Advisory increased to $175 from $160, and UBS boosted to $169 from $163, citing broad-based sales strength, margin expansion, and the company’s ability to capture value-oriented demand.
Market Share Gains → Trade-Down Beneficiary The company is capitalizing on consumers prioritizing affordability across income levels, with strong performance in cosmetics, shoes, and ladies’ apparel, and robust regional activity in the Southeast and Midwest driving 7.7% trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise.
Share Buybacks → $1.05 Billion Program Ross repurchased 1.7 million shares for $262 million between August and November 2025, bringing total buybacks under the March 2024 program to 12.88 million shares or 3.9% of outstanding shares, with the company on track to complete the $1.05 billion program as planned.
Market Takeaway Ross Stores exemplifies how to win in retail’s current environment—offer compelling value on brand-name merchandise when consumers are increasingly budget-conscious. The 7% comp sales growth in Q3 wasn’t a fluke driven by promotions; it reflected broad-based strength across categories and regions, demonstrating the fundamental appeal of the off-price model. With traditional department stores struggling and even mid-market retailers facing headwinds, Ross is capturing market share by providing 20-60% discounts on the same brands at consistently delivered value.
The macro setup remains favorable for Ross heading into 2026. The global discount retail market is projected to grow at a 5.2% CAGR from 2025 to 2031, driven by economic uncertainty that amplifies the appeal of everyday low prices. While lower-income consumers continue facing pressure from inflation on necessities, Ross is also attracting higher-income shoppers trading down—a dynamic that expands the addressable market beyond the core customer base. CEO Jim Conroy’s comments about capturing additional market share “particularly in an environment of rising prices across mainstream retail” speak to the structural advantage Ross enjoys when pricing power at traditional retailers pushes consumers toward off-price alternatives.
The Q4 guidance for 3-4% comp growth may seem conservative compared to Q3’s 7%, but management is prudently accounting for tougher year-over-year comparisons and ongoing tariff impacts. What matters more is the demonstrated ability to consistently beat conservative guidance—Ross has posted a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 6.7%. With analyst targets now ranging up to $183 and the stock entering 2026 with strong holiday momentum, aggressive buybacks returning cash to shareholders, and a proven playbook for navigating economic uncertainty, Ross Stores offers investors a defensive consumer discretionary play with offensive growth characteristics. As consumers continue prioritizing value in 2026, Ross’s treasure-hunt shopping experience and relentless focus on delivering branded bargains positions it to sustain market share gains in America’s evolving retail landscape.