Of course, I speak of President Joe Biden’s decision over the weekend to step down from the electoral race. Questions have soared about the president’s age and overall fitness. He will now focus entirely on the task at hand for the remainder of his term. Unfortunately, that leaves the Democrats with very little time to figure out a game plan.
How does this impact oil stocks? Fundamentally, unless something dramatic happens (which isn’t out of the question), Republican candidate Donald Trump has an easier road to the White House. And “The Donald” has made it clear that he’s pro-fossil fuels. In fact, he even stated point blank that he’ll roll back electric vehicle-related initiatives.
That’s not good for the climate but it’s a (possible) bonanza for big oil. Below are oil stocks to consider.
TotalEnergies (TTE)
One of the world’s biggest integrated oil stocks, TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) produces and markets various hydrocarbon products, including biofuels, natural gas and green gases. It also features a renewable energy business, which should offer increasing relevance considering the broader ideological trend of supporting sustainability.
On a financial level, TotalEnergies doesn’t offer the prettiest of statistics. For example, in the past four quarters, it posted an average earnings per share of $2.24. However, this figure missed the collective consensus view of $2.28. Therefore, the company suffered a negative earnings surprise of nearly 2%. However, Q1 2024 was relatively strong, producing an earnings surprise of 3.9%.
Moving forward, a rerun of the Trump administration could bolster the hydrocarbon space due to a refocusing on combustion-based cars. What’s also interesting is that TTE runs a five-year beta of 75% (or 0.75). That’s noticeably lower than the market average of 100%.
By year’s end, revenue may land at $237.69 billion, which is up only slightly. However, the high-side estimate calls for $291.36 billion. That seems more realistic given the political backdrop, making TTE one of the oil stocks to consider.
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Falling mainly under the exploration and production segment of the hydrocarbon value chain, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) represents a vital cog in the broader energy infrastructure. Also known as upstream, ConocoPhillips is involved in the extraction of crude oil from projects across the globe. It’s also an integrated enterprise, featuring business units involved in transportation and marketing.
Financially, what makes COP stock attractive is that while the quarter-to-quarter consistency is mixed, when the underlying company hits, it hits big. For example, in Q4, ConocoPhillips posted EPS of $2.40 against expectations calling for $2.09. Overall, in the past year since Q1, it delivered EPS of $2.11. This figure beat the consensus view of $2.04, yielding an earnings surprise of 3.13%.
Admittedly, investors considering COP stock will pay a premium in terms of volatility. The five-year beta stands at 125%. Further, the consensus sales target sits at $58.14 billion, which is down almost 1% against the prior year.
However, the high-side estimate is targeting $68.56 billion. That could be a realistic figure given the anticipation of a Trump victory. Thus, COP could be one of the oil stocks to consider.
Cenovus Energy (CVE)
Based in Canada, Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE) is another top-tier player among integrated oil stocks. Together with its subsidiaries, Cenovus develops and produces various hydrocarbon products, including natural gas and refined petroleum products. In addition, it features business units in the transportation and marketing realms.
As with other oil stocks, Cenovus hasn’t had a clean run in the past year regarding quarterly performances. Nevertheless, the company’s average EPS came out to 45 cents. In contrast, analyst were expecting 42 cents. Therefore, the earnings surprise landed at 8.53%. There was a miss in Q3 of last year. However, the beats averaged 12.7% against consensus targets.
Now, it must be said that those considering CVE stock should be prepared for a ride: its five-year beta stands at a startling 273%. Still, its most recent quarterly sales growth rate (year-over-year) comes in at 9.3%, implying positive momentum.
For fiscal 2024, experts believe that the top line could expand to $40.67 billion. That’s up almost 7% from last year’s haul of $38.16 billion. Moreover, the high-side estimate calls for $42.81 billion.
Kinder Morgan (KMI)
Moving over to a different segment of the hydrocarbon value chain, Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) specializes in midstream-related operations. Midstream refers to the transportation and storage of energy assets. For example, in current events, there are plenty of discussions about Russia’s energy pipelines, some of which go through Ukraine. That’s part of Russia’s midstream infrastructure.
Fundamentally, companies like Kinder Morgan are vital to their associated regional economies. If the flow of oil is disrupted, that’s going to be bad news for pretty much everyone. In that sense, KMI represents one of the most important oil stocks to buy. That said, the company has struggled in the past year, generating an EPS of 28 cents against a target of 29 cents.
However, with a possible political shift on the way, investors may consider KMI stock as a possible upside opportunity. That’s because with EVs facing a broader challenge under a Trump administration, demand for combustion-based cars could rise. In theory, this dynamic should boost Kinder Morgan’s financials.
Speaking of which, analysts expect year-end sales to hit $16.5 billion. If so, that would imply growth of 8.8%. Fiscal 2025 sales estimates call for a consensus view of $17.4 billion. But if Trump takes over, expect this projection to rise.
Pembina Pipeline (PBA)
Operating in Canada, Pembina Pipeline (NYSE:PBA) also falls under the oil and gas midstream component of the value chain. Per its public profile, Pembina features three business units: Pipelines, Facilities and Marketing & New Ventures. The company serves a variety of energy assets. It transports approximately 2.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (or BOE) per day.
On a financial note, Pembina – while extraordinarily relevant for the regional economies that it covers – is a hit-or-miss affair. For example, in Q3, the company suffered an earnings miss by a magnitude of 16%. However, in the following Q4, the company posted EPS of 88 cents against a consensus view of 62 cents. In the past year, EPS landed at 57 cents, beating the expert target by 5 cents.
Still, a key drawback for PBA is volatility. Its five-year beta stands at 149%. At the same time, Pembina offers a forward dividend yield of 5.32%, making a tempting proposition.
For fiscal 2024, experts believe that sales will come in at $6.54 billion. That’s down almost 2% from last year. However, the high-side estimate calls for $7.7 billion. Thus, PBA is one of the oil stocks to watch.
HF Sinclair (DINO)
Moving over to the refining and marketing segment of the hydrocarbon value chain, HF Sinclair (NYSE:DINO) is a downstream specialist. Basically, downstream is defined as follows: if it goes into your tank, it’s downstream. Crude oil extracted from the earth (upstream) must first be transported (midstream) to refiners before they end up as usable fuel.
As you might imagine, downstream enterprises represent a vital cog in the overall economy. Further, with Donald Trump determined to roll back progress made through zero-emission vehicles, downstream players may extract major benefits. Basically, Trump could make combustion cars great again. I’m actually being serious.
What’s noteworthy about HF Sinclair specifically is its financial performance. In the past four quarters, it posted an average EPS of $2.06. This figure handily beat out the consensus target of $1.82, yielding an earnings surprise of 14.05%.
However, for fiscal 2024, analysts are looking at sales slipping to $30.41 billion, implying a loss of almost 5%. Still, the high-side estimate calls for $33.61 billion. That might be more realistic given the pathway for a Republican victory this November.
Phillips 66 (PSX)
Another major entity in the upstream segment, Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) operates as both an energy manufacturing and logistics firm. That’s because the company also features a midstream business unit which transports crude oil and other feedstocks. However, for everyday consumers, Phillips 66 is best known for its namesake service stations.
With Trump enjoying an easier road to the White House, investors may want to take a long look at PSX. Thanks to a push for deregulation, fuel supplies may increase while production costs may decrease. Overall, this dynamic may contribute to much higher volumes for Phillips 66, thereby overcoming the profitability loss of higher supplies. Plus, more drivers may refuse to make the switch to EVs.
So far, the company is holding its ground relative to other oil stocks. Its average EPS over the past year clocked in at $3.37, beating the consensus view of $3.21. For fiscal 2024, analysts anticipate a revenue print of $143.99 billion. That would come out to a 3.9% loss against the prior year’s tally of 4149.89 billion.
However, the most optimistic forecast calls for $161.39 billion. That might be more realistic given anticipation of a Trump victory.
On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.